In this talk, we present a dynamic structural model of aggregate loss distribution for cyber risk of small and medium-sized enterprises. Here, we define a tree-based local-area network topology that consists of the combination of a Poisson process, homogeneous random trees, bidirectional bond percolation processes, and a cost topology. As a result, this leads us to obtain exact expressions for both the mean and variance of the aggregate loss. To highlight the utility of the model, we present an interesting application of network security and cyber insurance pricing.

**Stochastic Modeling Seminar
Friday, January 27, 2023
WXLR 307 and virtual via Zoom
11:00 am MST/AZ**

Please contact John Fricks (jfricks@asu.edu) for zoom information

Stefano Chiaradonna

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences

Arizona State University