Modeling land-use change, economic development and malaria dynamics in frontier regions

Friday, August 30, 2019 - 2:00pm


Andres Baeza
Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability
Postdoctoral Research Associate


Land-use change is the main force behind ecological and social change in many countries around the globe; it is primarily driven by resource needs and external economic incentives. Concomitantly, transformations of the land are the main drivers for the emergence and re-emergence of malaria. An understanding of malaria population dynamics in transforming landscapes is lacking, despite its relevance for developmental and public health policies. In this talk, I will present the development of a set of mathematical models that couple malaria epidemiology with the socio-economic and demographic processes that occur in a landscape undergoing land-use change. I will discuss the different types of malaria dynamics that can arise in early stages of this transformation, and the asymmetry between the relatively fast ecological changes in transformed landscapes, and the slower pace of investment in malaria protection.