Speaker:Sarah Hews,
Department of Mathematics and Statistics

Title:2002 Dengue Outbreak in Colima, Mexico: A Clinical Analysis and Reproduction Number Estimate

Abstract: Dengue fever, a vector-borne disease, thrives in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. We carried out a retrospective analysis of the 2002 dengue epidemic in Colima, Mexico, located on the central Pacific coast. We included 4040 dengue cases diagnosed at the hospitals of the Mexican Institute of Public Health. We analyzed a spatial database containing demographic, epidemiological, and clinical information. We looked for statistical associations between clinical symptoms and gender or age. The distribution of the time from the onset of symptoms to diagnosis was analyzed and associated with other clinical and demographic variables. Epidemics were simulated using an adapted form of Anderson and May's malaria model. We developed a technique to estimate the reproduction number from single and aggregated epidemics. Using this technique, we studied the effects of spatial heterogeneity across the state in the transmissibility of dengue.