Speaker:Karl-Peter Hadeler,
Department of Mathematics and Statistics ,
Arizona State University

Title:Epidemic modeling: case fatality versus differential mortality.

The standard approach to the impact of a potentially fatal disease is differential mortality which describes an increase of the death rate due to infection. Another concept is case fatality which is the probability of death upon exit from the infected state.
Although the two concepts seem identical at first glance (they are indeed equivalent up to a highly nonlinear transformation)they describe rather different epidemiological scenarios and lead to different insights.
(Joint work with Muntaser Safan and Klaus Dietz)